Riding profile

Etobicoke--Lakeshore

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Etobicoke--Lakeshore: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Etobicoke--Lakeshore, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

James Maloney

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.2%
  • Conservative 32.5%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • PPC 1.3%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereEtobicoke--Lakeshore 54.2%32.5%5.9%1.3%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +8.5 37.5% −4.9 6.4% −0.4 1.1% +0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +12.3 34.8% −2.3 14.2% −8.3 1.0% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
18.5 pts
Turnout
69.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
James Maloney Elected Liberal 37,512 57.4 Parliamentarian
Bernard Trottier Conservative 25,348 38.8 Management Consultant
Cory Wagar NDP 1,665 2.5 Freelance Media Specialist
Thomas Fanjoy PPC 616 0.9 Engineer
Janice Murray Other 197 0.3 Bindery Machine Operator and Graphic Artist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46