Riding profile
Etobicoke--Lakeshore
The question
Etobicoke--Lakeshore: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEtobicoke--Lakeshore | 57.5% | 30.6% | 3.9% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +8.4 | 35.3% −4.7 | 4.8% −0.9 | 1.1% +0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +9.5 | 32.1% −1.5 | 10.6% −6.7 | 1.0% +0.3 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Etobicoke--Lakeshore, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
James Maloney
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Maloney Elected | Liberal | 37,512 | 57.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Bernard Trottier | Conservative | 25,348 | 38.8 | Management Consultant |
| Cory Wagar | NDP | 1,665 | 2.5 | Freelance Media Specialist |
| Thomas Fanjoy | PPC | 616 | 0.9 | Engineer |
| Janice Murray | Other | 197 | 0.3 | Bindery Machine Operator and Graphic Artist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46