Riding profile
Davenport
The question
Davenport: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 41.6
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDavenport | 57.7% | 15.7% | 15.0% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +8.6 | 4.8% +10.9 | 35.3% −20.3 | 2.0% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +9.7 | 10.6% +5.1 | 32.1% −17.1 | 2.7% −0.6 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Davenport, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 58% vote share, against 16% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Julie Dzerowicz
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julie Dzerowicz Elected | Liberal | 35,364 | 57.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Francis Lavoie | Conservative | 14,189 | 23.2 | Business Development Manager |
| Sandra Sousa | NDP | 10,452 | 17.1 | Data Engineer |
| Lilian Barrera | Green | 782 | 1.3 | Freelance Artist and Writer |
| Dave McKee | Other | 387 | 0.6 | Journalist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 74.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 25.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46