Riding profile

Davenport

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Davenport: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Davenport, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 34-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 18% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Julie Dzerowicz

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
36.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.4%
  • NDP 17.7%
  • Conservative 16.9%
  • Green 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereDavenport 54.4%17.7%16.9%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +8.7 6.4% +11.4 37.5% −20.5 1.6% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +12.5 14.2% +3.5 34.8% −17.9 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
34.3 pts
Turnout
65.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julie Dzerowicz Elected Liberal 35,364 57.8 Parliamentarian
Francis Lavoie Conservative 14,189 23.2 Business Development Manager
Sandra Sousa NDP 10,452 17.1 Data Engineer
Lilian Barrera Green 782 1.3 Freelance Artist and Writer
Dave McKee Other 387 0.6 Journalist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 74.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46