Riding profile
Toronto--St. Paul's
The question
Toronto--St. Paul's: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto--St. Paul's | 61.9% | 24.9% | 4.1% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +12.8 | 35.3% −10.3 | 4.8% −0.6 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +13.9 | 32.1% −7.2 | 10.6% −6.5 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Toronto--St. Paul's, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 62% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Leslie Church
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leslie Church Elected | Liberal | 44,313 | 61.9 | Business Consultant |
| Don Stewart | Conservative | 23,700 | 33.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Bruce Levy | NDP | 2,496 | 3.5 | Retired |
| Shane Philips | Green | 552 | 0.8 | Singer-Songwriter |
| Joseph Frasca | PPC | 329 | 0.5 | Location Coordinator |
| David Gershuny | Other | 133 | 0.2 | Shipper-Receiver |
| Cynthia Valdron | Other | 58 | 0.1 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 84.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 15.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46