Riding profile
Don Valley West
The question
Don Valley West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereDon Valley West | 63.0% | 25.2% | 3.9% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +13.9 | 35.3% −10.1 | 4.8% −0.9 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +15.0 | 32.1% −6.9 | 10.6% −6.7 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Don Valley West, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Robert Oliphant
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Oliphant Elected | Liberal | 36,744 | 62.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Robert Pierce | Conservative | 19,480 | 33.2 | Investment Counsellor |
| Linnea Löfström-Abary | NDP | 1,382 | 2.4 | Student |
| Sheena Sharp | Green | 616 | 1.1 | Architect |
| Bahira Abdulsalam | Independent | 442 | 0.8 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 70.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 29.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46