Riding profile

Don Valley West

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Don Valley West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
37.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.0%
  • Conservative 25.2%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereDon Valley West 63.0%25.2%3.9%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +13.9 35.3% −10.1 4.8% −0.9 2.0%
National averageCanada 48.0% +15.0 32.1% −6.9 10.6% −6.7 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Don Valley West, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Robert Oliphant

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.2 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rob Oliphant Elected Liberal 36,744 62.6 Parliamentarian
Robert Pierce Conservative 19,480 33.2 Investment Counsellor
Linnea Löfström-Abary NDP 1,382 2.4 Student
Sheena Sharp Green 616 1.1 Architect
Bahira Abdulsalam Independent 442 0.8 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 70.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 29.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46