Riding profile

Don Valley West

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Don Valley West: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Don Valley West, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Robert Oliphant

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
32.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.7%
  • Conservative 27.1%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereDon Valley West 59.7%27.1%5.9%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +14.0 37.5% −10.3 6.4% −0.5 1.6%
National averageCanada 41.9% +17.8 34.8% −7.7 14.2% −8.3 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
29.2 pts
Turnout
68.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rob Oliphant Elected Liberal 36,744 62.6 Parliamentarian
Robert Pierce Conservative 19,480 33.2 Investment Counsellor
Linnea Löfström-Abary NDP 1,382 2.4 Student
Sheena Sharp Green 616 1.1 Architect
Bahira Abdulsalam Independent 442 0.8 Engineer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 70.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 29.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46