Riding profile

Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough Centre--Don Valley East, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 32% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Salma Zahid

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 53.8%
  • Conservative 31.6%
  • NDP 6.1%
  • PPC 1.7%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereScarborough Centre--Don Valley East 53.8%31.6%6.1%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +8.2 37.5% −5.8 6.4% −0.3 1.1% +0.7
National averageCanada 41.9% +11.9 34.8% −3.2 14.2% −8.1 1.0% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.0 pts
Turnout
61.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Salma Zahid Elected Liberal 27,557 57.3 Parliamentarian
Belent Mathew Conservative 18,307 38.1 Office Manager
Alyson Koa NDP 1,565 3.3 Communications Specialist
Peter Koubakis PPC 659 1.4 Meat Cutter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 67.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 32.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46