Riding profile

Scarborough--Woburn

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough--Woburn: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough--Woburn, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 26-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 28% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michael Coteau

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 56.9%
  • Conservative 27.8%
  • NDP 6.2%
  • Green 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough--Woburn 56.9%27.8%6.2%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +11.3 37.5% −9.7 6.4% −0.2 1.6%
National averageCanada 41.9% +15.0 34.8% −7.0 14.2% −8.0 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
26.0 pts
Turnout
59.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Coteau Elected Liberal 25,281 60.4 Parliamentarian
Reddy Muttukuru Conservative 14,291 34.1 Self-Employed
George Wedge NDP 1,466 3.5 Senior Quality Assurance Technician
Gianne Broughton Green 499 1.2 Caregiver
Amina Bhaiyat Independent 181 0.4 Homemaker
Ayub Sipra Other 150 0.4 Realtor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 62.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 37.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46