Riding profile

Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Scarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 32-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Gary Anandasangaree

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
35.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 60.7%
  • Conservative 25.4%
  • NDP 6.1%
  • Green 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereScarborough--Guildwood--Rouge Park 60.7%25.4%6.1%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +15.0 37.5% −12.0 6.4% −0.3 1.6%
National averageCanada 41.9% +18.8 34.8% −9.4 14.2% −8.1 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
32.1 pts
Turnout
65.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Gary Anandasangaree Elected Liberal 35,295 64.0 Lawyer
Suchita Jalan Conservative 17,485 31.7 Real Estate Broker
Kingsley Kwok NDP 1,772 3.2 Registered Respiratory Therapist
Troy Rife Green 633 1.1 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 75.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 24.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46