Riding profile

Markham--Thornhill

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Markham--Thornhill: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Markham--Thornhill, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tim Hodgson

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.1%
  • Conservative 34.9%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • PPC 1.8%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMarkham--Thornhill 51.1%34.9%5.2%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +5.4 37.5% −2.6 6.4% −1.1 1.1% +0.8
National averageCanada 41.9% +9.2 34.8% +0.1 14.2% −9.0 1.0% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
12.8 pts
Turnout
63.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tim Hodgson Elected Liberal 27,504 54.5 Corporate Director
Lionel Loganathan Conservative 21,003 41.6 Businessman
Aftab Qureshi NDP 1,022 2.0 Real Estate Broker
Mimi Lee PPC 747 1.5 Financial Advisor
Haider Qureshi Other 153 0.3 Sales and Marketing

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 49.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 50.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46