Riding profile
Markham--Thornhill
The question
Markham--Thornhill: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 21.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarkham--Thornhill | 54.6% | 32.8% | 3.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +5.5 | 35.3% −2.5 | 4.8% −1.3 | 1.1% +0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +6.6 | 32.1% +0.7 | 10.6% −7.1 | 1.0% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Markham--Thornhill, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Tim Hodgson
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Hodgson Elected | Liberal | 27,504 | 54.5 | Corporate Director |
| Lionel Loganathan | Conservative | 21,003 | 41.6 | Businessman |
| Aftab Qureshi | NDP | 1,022 | 2.0 | Real Estate Broker |
| Mimi Lee | PPC | 747 | 1.5 | Financial Advisor |
| Haider Qureshi | Other | 153 | 0.3 | Sales and Marketing |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 49.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 50.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46