Riding profile

Markham--Stouffville

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Markham--Stouffville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Markham--Stouffville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Helena Jaczek

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.4
P(close race)
3%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 47.7%
  • Conservative 39.3%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.0%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereMarkham--Stouffville 47.7%39.3%5.0%1.0%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +2.1 37.5% +1.9 6.4% −1.4 1.1% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +5.8 34.8% +4.5 14.2% −9.2 1.0%

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
6.1 pts
Turnout
69.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Helena Jaczek Elected Liberal 31,658 51.4 Parliamentarian
Niran Jeyanesan Conservative 27,898 45.3 Police Officer
Serena Cheung NDP 1,121 1.8 Environmental Consultant
Myles O'Brien Green 433 0.7 Sustainability Coordinator
René de Vries PPC 393 0.6 Environmental Geoscientist
Shahzad Ahmed Other 141 0.2 Banker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 68.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 31.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46