Riding profile
Markham--Stouffville
The question
Markham--Stouffville: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 14.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereMarkham--Stouffville | 51.2% | 37.2% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +2.1 | 35.3% +2.0 | 4.8% −1.6 | 1.1% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +3.2 | 32.1% +5.1 | 10.6% −7.4 | 1.0% |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Markham--Stouffville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Helena Jaczek
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Jaczek Elected | Liberal | 31,658 | 51.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Niran Jeyanesan | Conservative | 27,898 | 45.3 | Police Officer |
| Serena Cheung | NDP | 1,121 | 1.8 | Environmental Consultant |
| Myles O'Brien | Green | 433 | 0.7 | Sustainability Coordinator |
| René de Vries | PPC | 393 | 0.6 | Environmental Geoscientist |
| Shahzad Ahmed | Other | 141 | 0.2 | Banker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 68.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 31.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46