Riding profile

Pickering--Brooklin

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Pickering--Brooklin: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.0%
  • Conservative 33.2%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HerePickering--Brooklin 54.0%33.2%3.3%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +4.9 35.3% −2.1 4.8% −1.5 2.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.0 32.1% +1.1 10.6% −7.3 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Pickering--Brooklin, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Juanita Nathan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
12.9 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Juanita Nathan Elected Liberal 38,578 54.2 Councillor
Alicia Vianga Conservative 29,320 41.2 Business Owner
Jamie Nye NDP 1,838 2.6 Electrician
Lisa Robinson PPC 639 0.9 Councellor
Andrea Wood Green 535 0.8 Accountant
Zainab Rana Other 322 0.5 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46