Riding profile

Pickering--Brooklin

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Pickering--Brooklin: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Pickering--Brooklin, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Juanita Nathan

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 50.5%
  • Conservative 35.3%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • Green 1.2%
  • PPC 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HerePickering--Brooklin 50.5%35.3%5.1%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +4.9 37.5% −2.2 6.4% −1.3 1.6% −0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +8.6 34.8% +0.5 14.2% −9.1 2.1% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
12.9 pts
Turnout
70.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Juanita Nathan Elected Liberal 38,578 54.2 Councillor
Alicia Vianga Conservative 29,320 41.2 Business Owner
Jamie Nye NDP 1,838 2.6 Electrician
Lisa Robinson PPC 639 0.9 Councellor
Andrea Wood Green 535 0.8 Accountant
Zainab Rana Other 322 0.5 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.8%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46