Riding profile
Pickering--Brooklin
The question
Pickering--Brooklin: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 20.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HerePickering--Brooklin | 54.0% | 33.2% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +4.9 | 35.3% −2.1 | 4.8% −1.5 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +6.0 | 32.1% +1.1 | 10.6% −7.3 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Pickering--Brooklin, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Juanita Nathan
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juanita Nathan Elected | Liberal | 38,578 | 54.2 | Councillor |
| Alicia Vianga | Conservative | 29,320 | 41.2 | Business Owner |
| Jamie Nye | NDP | 1,838 | 2.6 | Electrician |
| Lisa Robinson | PPC | 639 | 0.9 | Councellor |
| Andrea Wood | Green | 535 | 0.8 | Accountant |
| Zainab Rana | Other | 322 | 0.5 | Student |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 88.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 11.8%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46