Riding profile

Ajax

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Ajax: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Ajax, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jennifer McKelvie

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.6%
  • Conservative 33.1%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • Green 1.4%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereAjax 52.6%33.1%5.1%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +6.9 37.5% −4.3 6.4% −1.3 1.6% −0.2
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.7 34.8% −1.7 14.2% −9.1 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
17.1 pts
Turnout
67.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jennifer McKelvie Elected Liberal 36,975 56.3 Municipal Councillor
Greg Brady Conservative 25,658 39.1 Radio Broadcaster
Kyle Forster NDP 1,762 2.7 Property Management
Faisal Ali Other 643 1.0 Project Manager
Leigh Paulseth Green 612 0.9 Program Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 82.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 17.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46