Riding profile
Ajax
The question
Ajax: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 25.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAjax | 56.0% | 31.0% | 3.3% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +7.0 | 35.3% −4.3 | 4.8% −1.4 | 2.0% −0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +8.0 | 32.1% −1.1 | 10.6% −7.3 | 2.7% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Ajax, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 17-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jennifer McKelvie
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jennifer McKelvie Elected | Liberal | 36,975 | 56.3 | Municipal Councillor |
| Greg Brady | Conservative | 25,658 | 39.1 | Radio Broadcaster |
| Kyle Forster | NDP | 1,762 | 2.7 | Property Management |
| Faisal Ali | Other | 643 | 1.0 | Project Manager |
| Leigh Paulseth | Green | 612 | 0.9 | Program Coordinator |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 82.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 17.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46