Riding profile

Oshawa

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Oshawa: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Oshawa, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rhonda Kirkland

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
3.0
P(close race)
88%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 42.1%
  • Liberal 39.3%
  • NDP 6.4%
  • Green 1.7%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereOshawa 42.1%39.3%6.4%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +4.7 45.6% −6.4 6.4% 1.6% +0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +7.3 41.9% −2.6 14.2% −7.8 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.2 pts
Turnout
64.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rhonda Kirkland Elected Conservative 32,131 48.2 Educational Therapist
Isaac Ransom Liberal 28,653 43.0 Corporate Affairs
Sara Labelle NDP 5,112 7.7 Charge Medical Laboratory Technologist
Katherine Mathewson Green 804 1.2 Native Plant Garden Designer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 93.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46