Riding profile

Oshawa

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Oshawa: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
94%
Mean margin (pts)
2.8
P(close race)
91%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.8%
  • Conservative 40.0%
  • NDP 4.6%
  • Green 2.0%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereOshawa 42.8%40.0%4.6%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −6.3 35.3% +4.7 4.8% −0.2 2.0% +0.1
National averageCanada 48.0% −5.2 32.1% +7.9 10.6% −6.0 2.7% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oshawa, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 5-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Rhonda Kirkland

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
5.2 pts
Turnout
64.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rhonda Kirkland Elected Conservative 32,131 48.2 Educational Therapist
Isaac Ransom Liberal 28,653 43.0 Corporate Affairs
Sara Labelle NDP 5,112 7.7 Charge Medical Laboratory Technologist
Katherine Mathewson Green 804 1.2 Native Plant Garden Designer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.7%
  • Anglophone 93.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46