Riding profile

Bowmanville--Oshawa North

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Bowmanville--Oshawa North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
98%
Mean margin (pts)
3.7
P(close race)
77%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 45.3%
  • Conservative 41.6%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereBowmanville--Oshawa North 45.3%41.6%3.4%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −3.8 35.3% +6.4 4.8% −1.4 2.0% −0.4
National averageCanada 48.0% −2.7 32.1% +9.5 10.6% −7.2 2.7% −1.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bowmanville--Oshawa North, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 91% anglophone.

Sitting member

Jamil Jivani

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
4.2 pts
Turnout
69.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jamil Jivani Elected Conservative 35,232 49.8 Parliamentarian
Bridget Girard Liberal 32,214 45.5 Retired Educator
Elenor Marano NDP 2,032 2.9 Student
Julie Dietrich Green 546 0.8 Pet Care
Pranay Gunti Independent 264 0.4 Information Technology Professional
Thomas Zekveld Other 155 0.2 Farm Manager
Clint Cole Other 143 0.2 Paralegal
Ghuzna Imam Other 134 0.2 Self-Employed
Adam Smith Other 68 0.1 Retail

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 91.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 8.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46