Riding profile
Bowmanville--Oshawa North
The question
Bowmanville--Oshawa North: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Bowmanville--Oshawa North, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 91% anglophone.
Sitting member
Jamil Jivani
Sits with Conservative
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 85%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 96%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBowmanville--Oshawa North | 43.7% | 41.8% | 5.2% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 37.5% +6.3 | 45.6% −3.8 | 6.4% −1.2 | 1.6% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 34.8% +8.9 | 41.9% −0.1 | 14.2% −9.0 | 2.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamil Jivani Elected | Conservative | 35,232 | 49.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Bridget Girard | Liberal | 32,214 | 45.5 | Retired Educator |
| Elenor Marano | NDP | 2,032 | 2.9 | Student |
| Julie Dietrich | Green | 546 | 0.8 | Pet Care |
| Pranay Gunti | Independent | 264 | 0.4 | Information Technology Professional |
| Thomas Zekveld | Other | 155 | 0.2 | Farm Manager |
| Clint Cole | Other | 143 | 0.2 | Paralegal |
| Ghuzna Imam | Other | 134 | 0.2 | Self-Employed |
| Adam Smith | Other | 68 | 0.1 | Retail |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.6%
- Anglophone 91.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 8.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46