Riding profile
Whitby
The question
Whitby: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 16.8
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWhitby | 52.5% | 35.7% | 3.3% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +3.4 | 35.3% +0.5 | 4.8% −1.5 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +4.5 | 32.1% +3.6 | 10.6% −7.3 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Whitby, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 88% anglophone.
Sitting member
Ryan Turnbull
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Turnbull Elected | Liberal | 35,624 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Steve Yamada | Conservative | 29,620 | 43.8 | Regional Councillor |
| Kevin Goswell | NDP | 1,638 | 2.4 | Correctional Officer |
| Andrew Di Lullo | Green | 506 | 0.7 | Lawyer |
| Nouman Mian | Other | 206 | 0.3 | Self-Employed IT Project Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.6%
- Anglophone 88.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 11.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46