Riding profile

Whitby

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Whitby: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Whitby, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 38% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 88% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ryan Turnbull

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 49.0%
  • Conservative 37.9%
  • NDP 5.1%
  • Green 1.2%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWhitby 49.0%37.9%5.1%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +3.4 37.5% +0.4 6.4% −1.3 1.6% −0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +7.1 34.8% +3.1 14.2% −9.1 2.1% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.8 pts
Turnout
71.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ryan Turnbull Elected Liberal 35,624 52.7 Parliamentarian
Steve Yamada Conservative 29,620 43.8 Regional Councillor
Kevin Goswell NDP 1,638 2.4 Correctional Officer
Andrew Di Lullo Green 506 0.7 Lawyer
Nouman Mian Other 206 0.3 Self-Employed IT Project Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 88.2%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46