Riding profile

Markham--Unionville

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Markham--Unionville: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.3
P(close race)
63%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.9%
  • Conservative 42.6%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 1.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereMarkham--Unionville 46.9%42.6%3.2%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −2.2 35.3% +7.3 4.8% −1.6 2.0% −0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.1 32.1% +10.5 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Markham--Unionville, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Michael Ma

Sits with Liberal

Elected as Conservative · floor_crossingon2025-12-11

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.6 pts
Turnout
63.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Ma Elected Conservative 27,055 50.7 Business Owner
Peter Yuen Liberal 25,133 47.1 Former Police Officer
Sameer Qureshi NDP 723 1.4 Student
Elvin Kao Green 503 0.9 Product Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 48.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 51.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46