Riding profile
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill
The question
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 4.0
- P(close race)
- 73%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereAurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill | 46.6% | 42.6% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +11.3 | 49.1% −6.5 | 4.8% −1.6 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +14.5 | 48.0% −5.4 | 10.6% −7.4 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Costas Menegakis
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Costas Menegakis Elected | Conservative | 34,023 | 54.7 | Businessman |
| Leah Taylor Roy | Liberal | 26,590 | 42.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Danielle Maniuk | NDP | 835 | 1.3 | Financial Administrator |
| Tom Muench | Green | 465 | 0.7 | Vice-President Government Relations |
| Igor Tvorogov | PPC | 256 | 0.4 | Software Developer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 65.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 34.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46