Riding profile

Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Aurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Costas Menegakis

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.6
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.7%
  • Liberal 39.1%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.2%
  • PPC 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereAurora--Oak Ridges--Richmond Hill 48.7%39.1%5.0%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +11.2 45.6% −6.5 6.4% −1.4 1.6% −0.4
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.9 41.9% −2.8 14.2% −9.2 2.1% −0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.9 pts
Turnout
69.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Costas Menegakis Elected Conservative 34,023 54.7 Businessman
Leah Taylor Roy Liberal 26,590 42.8 Parliamentarian
Danielle Maniuk NDP 835 1.3 Financial Administrator
Tom Muench Green 465 0.7 Vice-President Government Relations
Igor Tvorogov PPC 256 0.4 Software Developer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 65.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 34.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46