Riding profile

King--Vaughan

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

King--Vaughan: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

King--Vaughan, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 32% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anna Roberts

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
23.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 55.3%
  • Liberal 32.3%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 1.3%
  • PPC 0.9%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereKing--Vaughan 55.3%32.3%5.0%1.3%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +17.9 45.6% −13.4 6.4% −1.4 1.6% −0.3
National averageCanada 34.8% +20.5 41.9% −9.6 14.2% −9.2 2.1% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
25.4 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anna Roberts Elected Conservative 41,682 61.5 Parliamentarian
Mubarak Ahmed Liberal 24,352 35.9 Project Manager
Samantha Sanchez NDP 769 1.1 Lawyer
Ann Raney Green 576 0.9 Engineer
Vageesh Sabharwal PPC 368 0.5 Dental Surgeon

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 74.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46