Riding profile
King--Vaughan
The question
King--Vaughan: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 17.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKing--Vaughan | 53.2% | 35.8% | 3.2% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +17.9 | 49.1% −13.3 | 4.8% −1.6 | 2.0% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +21.1 | 48.0% −12.2 | 10.6% −7.4 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
King--Vaughan, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Anna Roberts
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anna Roberts Elected | Conservative | 41,682 | 61.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Mubarak Ahmed | Liberal | 24,352 | 35.9 | Project Manager |
| Samantha Sanchez | NDP | 769 | 1.1 | Lawyer |
| Ann Raney | Green | 576 | 0.9 | Engineer |
| Vageesh Sabharwal | PPC | 368 | 0.5 | Dental Surgeon |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 74.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 25.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46