Riding profile

Newmarket--Aurora

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Newmarket--Aurora: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.4
P(close race)
63%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.7%
  • Conservative 42.4%
  • NDP 3.3%
  • Green 0.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereNewmarket--Aurora 46.7%42.4%3.3%0.8%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −2.4 35.3% +7.1 4.8% −1.5 2.0% −1.1
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.3 32.1% +10.3 10.6% −7.3 2.7% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Newmarket--Aurora, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sandra Cobena

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.6 pts
Turnout
70.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandra Cobena Elected Conservative 31,540 50.6 Senior Manager Commercial Credit
Jennifer McLachlan Liberal 29,299 47.0 Consultant
Anna Gollen NDP 1,473 2.4 Executive Administrator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 77.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 22.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46