Riding profile

Newmarket--Aurora

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Newmarket--Aurora: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Newmarket--Aurora, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Sandra Cobena

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
76%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
98%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.5%
  • Liberal 43.2%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereNewmarket--Aurora 44.5%43.2%5.0%0.5%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +7.0 45.6% −2.4 6.4% −1.3 1.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +9.7 41.9% +1.3 14.2% −9.2 2.1% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.6 pts
Turnout
70.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Sandra Cobena Elected Conservative 31,540 50.6 Senior Manager Commercial Credit
Jennifer McLachlan Liberal 29,299 47.0 Consultant
Anna Gollen NDP 1,473 2.4 Executive Administrator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 77.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 22.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46