Riding profile

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 53% vote share, against 33% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Scot Davidson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.3
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 53.1%
  • Liberal 32.8%
  • NDP 3.7%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereNew Tecumseth--Gwillimbury 53.1%32.8%3.7%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +15.7 45.6% −12.8 6.4% −2.7 1.6% −0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +18.4 41.9% −9.1 14.2% −10.5 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.2 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scot Davidson Elected Conservative 39,247 59.4 Parliamentarian
Mike Hanrahan Liberal 24,444 37.0 Restaurant Manager
Nancy Morrison NDP 1,226 1.9 Retired
Callum McKinnon Green 712 1.1 Student
Paul Montague PPC 496 0.8 Instacart Delivery Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 86.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46