Riding profile

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 50.7%
  • Liberal 36.7%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereNew Tecumseth--Gwillimbury 50.7%36.7%2.4%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +15.4 49.1% −12.4 4.8% −2.4 2.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +18.6 48.0% −11.3 10.6% −8.3 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

New Tecumseth--Gwillimbury, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Scot Davidson

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
22.2 pts
Turnout
68.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Scot Davidson Elected Conservative 39,247 59.4 Parliamentarian
Mike Hanrahan Liberal 24,444 37.0 Restaurant Manager
Nancy Morrison NDP 1,226 1.9 Retired
Callum McKinnon Green 712 1.1 Student
Paul Montague PPC 496 0.8 Instacart Delivery Driver

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 86.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 13.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46