Riding profile

Barrie South--Innisfil

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Barrie South--Innisfil: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
11.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 49.2%
  • Liberal 37.7%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • PPC 1.4%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereBarrie South--Innisfil 49.2%37.7%2.6%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +13.9 49.1% −11.4 4.8% −2.1 1.1% +0.3
National averageCanada 32.1% +17.1 48.0% −10.3 10.6% −8.0 1.0% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Barrie South--Innisfil, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 92% anglophone.

Sitting member

John Brassard

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
19.8 pts
Turnout
67.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Brassard Elected Conservative 38,943 57.8 Parliamentarian
John Olthuis Liberal 25,557 38.0 Retired
Andrew Harrigan NDP 2,130 3.2 Child Protection Investigator
Mark Sampson PPC 695 1.0 Financial Advisor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 91.6%
  • Non-francophone (other) 7.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46