Riding profile

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Doug Shipley

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
5.4
P(close race)
42%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.5%
  • Liberal 40.2%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • Green 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereBarrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 45.5%40.2%3.8%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +8.1 45.6% −5.5 6.4% −2.6 1.6% +0.2
National averageCanada 34.8% +10.7 41.9% −1.7 14.2% −10.4 2.1% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.3 pts
Turnout
70.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Doug Shipley Elected Conservative 33,949 51.7 Parliamentarian
Rose Zacharias Liberal 29,150 44.4 Medical Doctor
Gabriela Trujillo NDP 1,559 2.4 Caregiver
Greg Taylor Green 893 1.4 Teacher
Michael Speers Other 158 0.2 Media and Communications Specialist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 94.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46