Riding profile

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
69%
Mean margin (pts)
1.8
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.0%
  • Conservative 43.1%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereBarrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte 44.0%43.1%2.4%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −5.1 35.3% +7.8 4.8% −2.3 2.0% +0.2
National averageCanada 48.0% −4.0 32.1% +11.0 10.6% −8.2 2.7% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Barrie--Springwater--Oro-Medonte, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 7-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 95% anglophone.

Sitting member

Doug Shipley

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
7.3 pts
Turnout
70.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
-5.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Doug Shipley Elected Conservative 33,949 51.7 Parliamentarian
Rose Zacharias Liberal 29,150 44.4 Medical Doctor
Gabriela Trujillo NDP 1,559 2.4 Caregiver
Greg Taylor Green 893 1.4 Teacher
Michael Speers Other 158 0.2 Media and Communications Specialist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.5%
  • Anglophone 94.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46