Riding profile
York--Durham
The question
York--Durham: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 7.7
- P(close race)
- 8%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereYork--Durham | 46.9% | 39.3% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +11.7 | 49.1% −9.8 | 4.8% −2.3 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +14.8 | 48.0% −8.8 | 10.6% −8.1 | 2.7% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
York--Durham, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Jacob Mantle
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Mantle Elected | Conservative | 40,329 | 55.6 | Lawyer |
| Robert Grossi | Liberal | 28,726 | 39.6 | Retired |
| Justin Graham | NDP | 1,829 | 2.5 | Property Valuation Analyst |
| Patricia Conlin | PPC | 901 | 1.2 | Human Resources Consultant |
| Matt Pearce | Green | 797 | 1.1 | Automotive Repair Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 94.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46