Riding profile

York--Durham

Federal riding — ON · Rural · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

York--Durham: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

York--Durham, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 16-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Jacob Mantle

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.0
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 49.4%
  • Liberal 35.4%
  • NDP 3.8%
  • Green 1.6%
  • PPC 1.6%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereYork--Durham 49.4%35.4%3.8%1.6%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +11.9 45.6% −10.3 6.4% −2.6 1.6%
National averageCanada 34.8% +14.6 41.9% −6.5 14.2% −10.4 2.1% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
15.9 pts
Turnout
72.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Jacob Mantle Elected Conservative 40,329 55.6 Lawyer
Robert Grossi Liberal 28,726 39.6 Retired
Justin Graham NDP 1,829 2.5 Property Valuation Analyst
Patricia Conlin PPC 901 1.2 Human Resources Consultant
Matt Pearce Green 797 1.1 Automotive Repair Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 94.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46