Riding profile

Simcoe--Grey

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Simcoe--Grey: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
57%
Mean margin (pts)
1.6
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 43.5%
  • Liberal 43.1%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSimcoe--Grey 43.5%43.1%2.4%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +8.3 49.1% −6.0 4.8% −2.4 2.0% +0.3
National averageCanada 32.1% +11.4 48.0% −4.9 10.6% −8.2 2.7% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Simcoe--Grey, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Terry Dowdall

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
8.7 pts
Turnout
71.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Terry Dowdall Elected Conservative 35,364 52.1 Parliamentarian
Bren Munro Liberal 29,455 43.4 Business Owner
Jasleen Bains NDP 1,574 2.3 Communications Specialist
Allan Kuhn Green 991 1.5 Direct Support Worker
Giorgio Mammoliti PPC 523 0.8 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.8%
  • Anglophone 96.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.7%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46