Riding profile

Dufferin--Caledon

Federal riding — ON · Rural · eastern on

The question

Dufferin--Caledon: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 51.6%
  • Liberal 35.0%
  • NDP 2.4%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereDufferin--Caledon 51.6%35.0%2.4%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +16.3 49.1% −14.1 4.8% −2.4 2.0% +0.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +19.5 48.0% −13.0 10.6% −8.3 2.7% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Dufferin--Caledon, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 25-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 35% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 93% anglophone.

Sitting member

Kyle Seeback

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
24.9 pts
Turnout
71.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Kyle Seeback Elected Conservative 42,458 60.1 Parliamentarian
Malalai Halimi Liberal 24,818 35.2 Operations Manger
Viktor Karklins NDP 1,380 2.0 College Professor
Ifra Baig Green 927 1.3 Student
Dympna Carolan PPC 752 1.1 Financial Administrator
Jeffrey Halsall Independent 260 0.4 Marketing Director

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.3%
  • Anglophone 93.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46