Riding profile

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.7
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.5%
  • Liberal 39.9%
  • Green 3.0%
  • NDP 2.6%
  • PPC 1.2%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal Green NDP
HereBruce--Grey--Owen Sound 44.5%39.9%3.0%2.6%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +9.2 49.1% −9.2 2.0% +1.0 4.8% −2.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +12.4 48.0% −8.1 2.7% +0.3 10.6% −8.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Bruce--Grey--Owen Sound, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 13-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Alex Ruff

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.9 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Alex Ruff Elected Conservative 35,484 53.0 Retired Military Officer
Anne Marie Watson Liberal 26,837 40.1 Retired
Christopher Neudorf NDP 2,069 3.1 Teacher
Natasha Akiwenzie Green 1,447 2.2 Manager
Ann Gillies Other 554 0.8 Retired
Pavel Smolko PPC 520 0.8 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 95.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46