Riding profile

Huron--Bruce

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Huron--Bruce: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Huron--Bruce, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ben Lobb

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.7
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.1%
  • Liberal 37.4%
  • NDP 4.0%
  • Green 1.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereHuron--Bruce 47.1%37.4%4.0%1.8%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +9.6 45.6% −8.2 6.4% −2.4 1.6% +0.2
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.3 41.9% −4.5 14.2% −10.2 2.1% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.6 pts
Turnout
75.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Lobb Elected Conservative 37,027 53.2 Parliamentarian
James Rice Liberal 28,936 41.5 Lawyer
Melanie Burrett NDP 2,300 3.3 Library Clerk
Gregory J McLean Green 927 1.3 Retired Educator
Justin L Smith Independent 273 0.4 Store Manager
Caesar salad Pella Independent 194 0.3 Construction Craft Labourer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 95.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46