Riding profile

Huron--Bruce

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Huron--Bruce: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
97%
Mean margin (pts)
3.4
P(close race)
80%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.6%
  • Liberal 41.3%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereHuron--Bruce 44.6%41.3%2.7%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +9.4 49.1% −7.8 4.8% −2.1 2.0% +0.2
National averageCanada 32.1% +12.5 48.0% −6.7 10.6% −7.9 2.7% −0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Huron--Bruce, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 96% anglophone.

Sitting member

Ben Lobb

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.6 pts
Turnout
75.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ben Lobb Elected Conservative 37,027 53.2 Parliamentarian
James Rice Liberal 28,936 41.5 Lawyer
Melanie Burrett NDP 2,300 3.3 Library Clerk
Gregory J McLean Green 927 1.3 Retired Educator
Justin L Smith Independent 273 0.4 Store Manager
Caesar salad Pella Independent 194 0.3 Construction Craft Labourer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.1%
  • Anglophone 95.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 4.4%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46