Riding profile
Waterloo
The question
Waterloo: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Waterloo, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 27% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Bardish Chagger
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 29.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereWaterloo | 55.8% | 26.7% | 5.5% | 3.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +10.2 | 37.5% −10.7 | 6.4% −0.9 | 1.6% +1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +13.9 | 34.8% −8.1 | 14.2% −8.7 | 2.1% +0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bardish Chagger Elected | Liberal | 37,579 | 59.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Waseem Botros | Conservative | 20,571 | 32.6 | Engineer |
| Héline Chow | NDP | 2,617 | 4.1 | Project Engineer |
| Simon Guthrie | Green | 1,599 | 2.5 | Community Leader |
| Douglas Ross | PPC | 348 | 0.6 | Security Guard |
| Val Neekman | Independent | 179 | 0.3 | Technical Entrepreneur |
| Santa Claus Chatham | Other | 119 | 0.2 | Exterminator |
| Hans Roach | Independent | 105 | 0.2 | Councillor |
| Jamie Hari | Independent | 76 | 0.1 | Cybersecurity Product Leader |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46