Riding profile

Waterloo

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Waterloo: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
34.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 59.3%
  • Conservative 24.6%
  • NDP 3.7%
  • Green 3.4%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereWaterloo 59.3%24.6%3.7%3.4%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +10.2 35.3% −10.7 4.8% −1.1 2.0% +1.4
National averageCanada 48.0% +11.3 32.1% −7.5 10.6% −6.9 2.7% +0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Waterloo, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 59% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Bardish Chagger

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
26.8 pts
Turnout
72.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Bardish Chagger Elected Liberal 37,579 59.5 Parliamentarian
Waseem Botros Conservative 20,571 32.6 Engineer
Héline Chow NDP 2,617 4.1 Project Engineer
Simon Guthrie Green 1,599 2.5 Community Leader
Douglas Ross PPC 348 0.6 Security Guard
Val Neekman Independent 179 0.3 Technical Entrepreneur
Santa Claus Chatham Other 119 0.2 Exterminator
Hans Roach Independent 105 0.2 Councillor
Jamie Hari Independent 76 0.1 Cybersecurity Product Leader

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46