Riding profile

Cambridge

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Cambridge: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
5.7
P(close race)
33%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 46.2%
  • Conservative 40.4%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • Green 2.5%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereCambridge 46.2%40.4%3.5%2.5%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −2.9 35.3% +5.2 4.8% −1.3 2.0% +0.5
National averageCanada 48.0% −1.8 32.1% +8.3 10.6% −7.1 2.7% −0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cambridge, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Connie Cody

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.2 pts
Turnout
69.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Connie Cody Elected Conservative 31,766 48.6 Community Relations
Bryan May Liberal 30,309 46.3 Parliamentarian
José de Lima NDP 2,183 3.3 Social Services Manager
Lux Burgess Green 1,052 1.6 Environmental Engineering
Manuel Couto Other 109 0.2 Printer

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46