Riding profile

Kitchener South--Hespeler

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Kitchener South--Hespeler: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Kitchener South--Hespeler, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Matt Strauss

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
63%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.6%
  • Conservative 42.0%
  • NDP 5.2%
  • Green 2.5%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereKitchener South--Hespeler 42.6%42.0%5.2%2.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −3.0 37.5% +4.5 6.4% −1.2 1.6% +0.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +0.7 34.8% +7.2 14.2% −9.0 2.1% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
1.7 pts
Turnout
70.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Matt Strauss Elected Conservative 28,973 47.9 Physician
Valerie Bradford Liberal 27,945 46.2 Parliamentarian
Lorne Bruce NDP 1,823 3.0 Retail Clerk
Ethan Russell Green 1,208 2.0 Student
Randall Williams PPC 386 0.6 Commercial Truck Driver
Kathleen Dueck Other 96 0.2 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46