Riding profile
Kitchener South--Hespeler
The question
Kitchener South--Hespeler: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 6.2
- P(close race)
- 23%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereKitchener South--Hespeler | 46.1% | 39.9% | 3.4% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −3.0 | 35.3% +4.6 | 4.8% −1.4 | 2.0% +0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −1.9 | 32.1% +7.8 | 10.6% −7.2 | 2.7% +0.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Kitchener South--Hespeler, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Matt Strauss
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Strauss Elected | Conservative | 28,973 | 47.9 | Physician |
| Valerie Bradford | Liberal | 27,945 | 46.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Lorne Bruce | NDP | 1,823 | 3.0 | Retail Clerk |
| Ethan Russell | Green | 1,208 | 2.0 | Student |
| Randall Williams | PPC | 386 | 0.6 | Commercial Truck Driver |
| Kathleen Dueck | Other | 96 | 0.2 | Retired |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46