Riding profile

Guelph

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Guelph: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
31.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 54.8%
  • Conservative 22.9%
  • Green 11.1%
  • NDP 3.5%
  • PPC 1.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative Green NDP
HereGuelph 54.8%22.9%11.1%3.5%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +5.8 35.3% −12.4 2.0% +9.1 4.8% −1.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +6.8 32.1% −9.2 2.7% +8.4 10.6% −7.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Guelph, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 55% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dominique O'Rourke

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
24.0 pts
Turnout
72.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dominique O'Rourke Elected Liberal 36,406 54.7 Communications Consultant
Gurvir Khaira Conservative 20,470 30.7 Student
Anne-Marie Zajdlik Green 6,779 10.2 Medical Doctor
Janice Folk-Dawson NDP 2,129 3.2 Retired
Jeffrey Swackhammer PPC 498 0.7 Personal Trainer
Elaine Baetz Other 132 0.2 Office Worker
Michael Wassilyn Independent 117 0.2 Pensioner
Yurii Yavorskyi Other 62 0.1 Registrations Coordinator

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 88.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 11.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46