Riding profile
Guelph
The question
Guelph: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Guelph, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 24-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 25% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Dominique O'Rourke
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 26.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereGuelph | 51.4% | 25.0% | 10.7% | 5.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +5.7 | 37.5% −12.4 | 1.6% +9.1 | 6.4% −1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +9.5 | 34.8% −9.8 | 2.1% +8.6 | 14.2% −8.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dominique O'Rourke Elected | Liberal | 36,406 | 54.7 | Communications Consultant |
| Gurvir Khaira | Conservative | 20,470 | 30.7 | Student |
| Anne-Marie Zajdlik | Green | 6,779 | 10.2 | Medical Doctor |
| Janice Folk-Dawson | NDP | 2,129 | 3.2 | Retired |
| Jeffrey Swackhammer | PPC | 498 | 0.7 | Personal Trainer |
| Elaine Baetz | Other | 132 | 0.2 | Office Worker |
| Michael Wassilyn | Independent | 117 | 0.2 | Pensioner |
| Yurii Yavorskyi | Other | 62 | 0.1 | Registrations Coordinator |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 88.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 11.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46