Riding profile

Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Dan Muys

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
7.8
P(close race)
7%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.2%
  • Liberal 39.3%
  • NDP 4.6%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 1.1%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereFlamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North 47.2%39.3%4.6%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +9.7 45.6% −6.3 6.4% −1.8 1.6% −0.3
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.4 41.9% −2.6 14.2% −9.6 2.1% −0.7

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
9.4 pts
Turnout
76.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Dan Muys Elected Conservative 35,246 52.7 Parliamentarian
Chuck Phillips Liberal 28,915 43.2 Consultant
Peter Werhun NDP 1,630 2.4 Lawyer
Anita Payne Green 594 0.9 Retired Educator
Nikita Mahood PPC 499 0.7 Small Business Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 94.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 5.6%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46