Riding profile
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North
The question
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North: who wins this toss-up?
Current forecast
Conservative
Toss-up
- Probability
- 88%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 2.2
- P(close race)
- 95%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereFlamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North | 45.0% | 42.9% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +9.7 | 49.1% −6.2 | 4.8% −1.9 | 2.0% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +12.9 | 48.0% −5.1 | 10.6% −7.7 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Flamborough--Glanbrook--Brant North, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 9-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 43% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Dan Muys
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Muys Elected | Conservative | 35,246 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Chuck Phillips | Liberal | 28,915 | 43.2 | Consultant |
| Peter Werhun | NDP | 1,630 | 2.4 | Lawyer |
| Anita Payne | Green | 594 | 0.9 | Retired Educator |
| Nikita Mahood | PPC | 499 | 0.7 | Small Business Owner |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 94.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 5.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46