Riding profile
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas
The question
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 27.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas | 56.0% | 28.8% | 4.0% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +6.9 | 35.3% −6.5 | 4.8% −0.8 | 2.0% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +8.0 | 32.1% −3.3 | 10.6% −6.6 | 2.7% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
John-Paul Danko
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John-Paul Danko Elected | Liberal | 38,970 | 56.1 | Engineer |
| Erika Alexander | Conservative | 25,547 | 36.8 | Public Speaker |
| Roberto Henriquez | NDP | 3,648 | 5.3 | Lawyer |
| Georgia Beauchemin | Green | 829 | 1.2 | Student |
| Ava Sharavi | PPC | 307 | 0.4 | Corrective Exercise Specialist |
| Jim Enos | Other | 163 | 0.2 | Civil Engineering Technologist |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 87.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 12.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46