Riding profile

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Hamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 19-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 31% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John-Paul Danko

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
21.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.5%
  • Conservative 30.9%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.8%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereHamilton West--Ancaster--Dundas 52.5%30.9%5.8%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +6.8 37.5% −6.5 6.4% −0.6 1.6% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.6 34.8% −3.9 14.2% −8.4 2.1% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.2 pts
Turnout
73.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John-Paul Danko Elected Liberal 38,970 56.1 Engineer
Erika Alexander Conservative 25,547 36.8 Public Speaker
Roberto Henriquez NDP 3,648 5.3 Lawyer
Georgia Beauchemin Green 829 1.2 Student
Ava Sharavi PPC 307 0.4 Corrective Exercise Specialist
Jim Enos Other 163 0.2 Civil Engineering Technologist

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 87.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46