Riding profile
Burlington
The question
Burlington: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 23.1
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereBurlington | 55.6% | 32.5% | 3.2% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +6.5 | 35.3% −2.7 | 4.8% −1.6 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +7.6 | 32.1% +0.4 | 10.6% −7.4 | 2.7% −1.1 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Burlington, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 15-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 56% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 92% anglophone.
Sitting member
Karina Gould
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karina Gould Elected | Liberal | 43,593 | 55.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Emily Brown | Conservative | 31,686 | 40.6 | Professor |
| Michael Beauchemin | NDP | 1,549 | 2.0 | Sales Support |
| Kyle Hutton | Green | 595 | 0.8 | Digital and Data Organizer |
| Michael Bator | PPC | 523 | 0.7 | Software Engineer |
| Ocean Marshall | Other | 105 | 0.1 | Unemployed |
| Paul Harper | Other | 75 | 0.1 | Engineer |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.4%
- Anglophone 92.2%
- Non-francophone (other) 7.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46