Riding profile

Hamilton Mountain

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Hamilton Mountain: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Hamilton Mountain, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 35% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.

Sitting member

Lisa Hepfner

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Competitive

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
6.4
P(close race)
23%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 41.8%
  • Conservative 35.5%
  • NDP 9.6%
  • PPC 1.2%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereHamilton Mountain 41.8%35.5%9.6%1.2%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −3.8 37.5% −2.0 6.4% +3.2 1.1% +0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% −0.1 34.8% +0.7 14.2% −4.6 1.0% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
4.0 pts
Turnout
67.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lisa Hepfner Elected Liberal 27,302 45.6 Parliamentarian
Ken Hewitt Conservative 24,857 41.5 Self-Employed
Monique Taylor NDP 7,044 11.8 Parliamentarian
Bing Wong PPC 497 0.8 Entrepreneur
Rolf Gerstenberger Other 193 0.3 Steel Worker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 84.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46