Riding profile
Hamilton Mountain
The question
Hamilton Mountain: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 12.0
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton Mountain | 45.3% | 33.4% | 7.8% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −3.8 | 35.3% −1.9 | 4.8% +3.1 | 1.1% +0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −2.7 | 32.1% +1.3 | 10.6% −2.8 | 1.0% +0.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hamilton Mountain, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 33% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Lisa Hepfner
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lisa Hepfner Elected | Liberal | 27,302 | 45.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Ken Hewitt | Conservative | 24,857 | 41.5 | Self-Employed |
| Monique Taylor | NDP | 7,044 | 11.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Bing Wong | PPC | 497 | 0.8 | Entrepreneur |
| Rolf Gerstenberger | Other | 193 | 0.3 | Steel Worker |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 84.9%
- Non-francophone (other) 15.1%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46