Riding profile

Hamilton Centre

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Hamilton Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
15.6
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 41.8%
  • NDP 26.2%
  • Conservative 21.9%
  • Green 2.3%
  • PPC 1.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereHamilton Centre 41.8%26.2%21.9%2.3%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −7.3 4.8% +21.4 35.3% −13.3 2.0% +0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% −6.2 10.6% +15.6 32.1% −10.2 2.7% −0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Hamilton Centre, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 26% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Aslam Rana

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
7.5 pts
Turnout
62.3%
Margin shift vs current projection
+8.1 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Aslam Rana Elected Liberal 21,388 37.6 Professional Engineer
Hayden Lawrence Conservative 17,079 30.0 Legal Clerk
Matthew Green NDP 16,581 29.1 Parliamentarian
Sandy Crawley Green 818 1.4 Performing Artist
David Speicher PPC 591 1.0 Virologist
Carla Green Independent 215 0.4 Social Worker
Cody Chenier Other 190 0.3 Comedian
Michael Loomans Independent 90 0.2 Technology and Innovation Management

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 87.9%
  • Non-francophone (other) 12.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46