Riding profile
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek
The question
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek: will Conservative lose this seat to Liberal?
Current forecast
Liberal
Competitive
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 5.8
- P(close race)
- 32%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereHamilton East--Stoney Creek | 46.3% | 40.5% | 3.6% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −2.8 | 35.3% +5.2 | 4.8% −1.2 | 1.1% +0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% −1.7 | 32.1% +8.4 | 10.6% −7.0 | 1.0% +0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 41% for the Conservative Party, and the riding remains competitive.
Sitting member
Ned Kuruc
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ned Kuruc Elected | Conservative | 32,857 | 48.7 | Mortgage Agent |
| Chad Collins | Liberal | 31,378 | 46.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Nayla Mithani | NDP | 2,471 | 3.7 | Project Manager |
| Jim Boutsikakis | PPC | 762 | 1.1 | Business Owner |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 81.8%
- Non-francophone (other) 18.2%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46