Riding profile

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Hamilton East--Stoney Creek, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 2-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 43% vote share, against 43% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Ned Kuruc

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
53%
Mean margin (pts)
1.5
P(close race)
99%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 42.8%
  • Conservative 42.6%
  • NDP 5.4%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereHamilton East--Stoney Creek 42.8%42.6%5.4%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% −2.9 37.5% +5.2 6.4% −1.0 1.1% +0.4
National averageCanada 41.9% +0.9 34.8% +7.8 14.2% −8.8 1.0% +0.5

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
2.2 pts
Turnout
69.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
-0.7 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ned Kuruc Elected Conservative 32,857 48.7 Mortgage Agent
Chad Collins Liberal 31,378 46.5 Parliamentarian
Nayla Mithani NDP 2,471 3.7 Project Manager
Jim Boutsikakis PPC 762 1.1 Business Owner

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.8%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.2%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46