Riding profile

Oakville East

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Oakville East: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
14.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 51.0%
  • Conservative 36.8%
  • NDP 3.4%
  • Green 1.4%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereOakville East 51.0%36.8%3.4%1.4%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +1.9 35.3% +1.5 4.8% −1.4 2.0% −0.6
National averageCanada 48.0% +3.0 32.1% +4.7 10.6% −7.2 2.7% −1.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Oakville East, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 6-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 51% vote share, against 37% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Anita Anand

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
6.3 pts
Turnout
73.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Anita Anand Elected Liberal 31,128 51.1 Parlamentarian
Ron Chhinzer Conservative 27,301 44.8 Vice President External Affairs
Hailey Ford NDP 1,698 2.8 Student
Bruno Sousa Green 351 0.6 Technology Entrepreneur and Consultant
Henry Karabela PPC 335 0.6 Retired
Alicia Bedford Other 59 0.1 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 77.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 22.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46