Riding profile

Mississauga--Lakeshore

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs peel halton

The question

Mississauga--Lakeshore: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
16.2
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.3%
  • Conservative 36.0%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 1.7%
  • PPC 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereMississauga--Lakeshore 52.3%36.0%3.2%1.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% +3.2 35.3% +0.8 4.8% −1.6 2.0% −0.3
National averageCanada 48.0% +4.3 32.1% +3.9 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Mississauga--Lakeshore, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 8-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 36% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Charles Sousa

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
8.3 pts
Turnout
70.5%
Margin shift vs current projection
+7.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Charles Sousa Elected Liberal 34,971 52.4 Parliamentarian
Tom Ellard Conservative 29,416 44.0 Project Manager
Evelyn Butler NDP 1,254 1.9 Social Media Manager
Mary Kidnew Green 587 0.9 Self-Employed
Fahad Rao PPC 334 0.5 Public Works Construction Inspector
Carlton Darby Independent 122 0.2 Accountant
Anna Di Carlo Other 113 0.2 Relocation Counselor

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 81.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 18.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46