Byelection

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations: who wins this toss-up?

By-election — the next vote in this seat

By-election favourite

Liberal

85% · Probability

  • Departure announced — seat not yet vacant
  • Larry Brock is leaving
  • Mean margin (pts) : 7.4

Projected shares

Liberal 49.0%
Conservative 42.4%
NDP 3.5%
Green 3.2%
PPC 1.9%

Why this differs from the map above

The general-election map still shows Conservative. In the by-election the model favours Liberal.

The projection below answers a general election: every seat voting at once. This one answers the by-election actually coming. By-election turnout is differential — it costs whichever side is demobilised, which is why the two can name different winners.

Full by-election desk →

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
72%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 45.1%
  • Liberal 41.0%
  • NDP 3.2%
  • Green 2.5%
  • PPC 1.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereBrantford--Brant South--Six Nations 45.1%41.0%3.2%2.5%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +9.8 49.1% −8.0 4.8% −1.6 2.0% +0.6
National averageCanada 32.1% +13.0 48.0% −7.0 10.6% −7.4 2.7% −0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Larry Brock

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.3 pts
Turnout
64.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-7.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Larry Brock Elected Conservative 34,501 52.4 Lawyer
Joy O'Donnell Liberal 27,032 41.1 Certified Financial Planner
Anne Gajerski-Cauley NDP 2,410 3.7 United Church of Canada Minister
Karleigh Csordas Green 1,110 1.7 Customer Service Manager
Nicholas Xenos PPC 392 0.6 IT Manager
Mike Clancy Independent 148 0.2 Citizen Advocate Paralegal
Leslie Bory Independent 120 0.2 Machinist
Clo Marie Independent 80 0.1 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 93.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46