Riding profile

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations

Federal riding — ON · Mixed · southwestern on

The question

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Brantford--Brant South--Six Nations, a mixed riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 11-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Larry Brock

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
9.8
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 47.3%
  • Liberal 37.5%
  • NDP 4.9%
  • Green 2.2%
  • PPC 1.0%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereBrantford--Brant South--Six Nations 47.3%37.5%4.9%2.2%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +9.8 45.6% −8.2 6.4% −1.5 1.6% +0.6
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.5 41.9% −4.4 14.2% −9.3 2.1% +0.1

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
11.3 pts
Turnout
64.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.5 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Larry Brock Elected Conservative 34,501 52.4 Lawyer
Joy O'Donnell Liberal 27,032 41.1 Certified Financial Planner
Anne Gajerski-Cauley NDP 2,410 3.7 United Church of Canada Minister
Karleigh Csordas Green 1,110 1.7 Customer Service Manager
Nicholas Xenos PPC 392 0.6 IT Manager
Mike Clancy Independent 148 0.2 Citizen Advocate Paralegal
Leslie Bory Independent 120 0.2 Machinist
Clo Marie Independent 80 0.1 Student

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 93.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.3%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46