Riding profile

Haldimand--Norfolk

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Haldimand--Norfolk: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
12.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 49.0%
  • Liberal 36.1%
  • NDP 2.7%
  • Green 1.9%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereHaldimand--Norfolk 49.0%36.1%2.7%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +13.8 49.1% −13.0 4.8% −2.1 2.0% −0.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +16.9 48.0% −11.9 10.6% −7.9 2.7% −0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Haldimand--Norfolk, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 21-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 36% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 0% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Leslyn Lewis

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.1 pts
Turnout
72.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Leslyn Lewis Elected Conservative 41,218 57.6 Parliamentarian
Colin Walsh Liberal 26,040 36.4 Teacher
Shannon Horner-Shepherd NDP 2,412 3.4 Steel Worker
Nathan Hawkins Green 750 1.0 General Labourer
Henry Geissler PPC 657 0.9 Truck Driver
Lily Eggink Other 529 0.7 Dog Breeder

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.2%
  • Anglophone 96.7%
  • Non-francophone (other) 3.1%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46