Riding profile

Perth--Wellington

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Perth--Wellington: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.0
P(close race)
71%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 44.5%
  • Liberal 40.5%
  • NDP 3.0%
  • PPC 2.0%
  • Green 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HerePerth--Wellington 44.5%40.5%3.0%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +9.2 49.1% −8.6 4.8% −1.8 1.1% +0.9
National averageCanada 32.1% +12.4 48.0% −7.5 10.6% −7.6 1.0% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Perth--Wellington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 41% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

John Nater

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.2 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Nater Elected Conservative 33,972 53.0 Parliamentarian
David Mackey Liberal 26,142 40.8 Board Member
Kevin Kruchkywich NDP 2,909 4.5 Actor
Wayne Baker PPC 1,069 1.7 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 93.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46