Perth—Wellington
Federal riding · Ontario · Southwestern Ontario
Forecast of November 2, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 74%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perth—Wellington | 43.6% | 39.7% | 3.2% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 34.5%+9.1 | 48.3%−8.6 | 2.3%+0.9 | 5.0%−1.9 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.2 | 46.8%−7.1 | 2.7%+0.5 | 11.2%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
John Nater · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 12.2 points, with 71.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 3.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Nater Elected | Conservative | 33,972 | 52.7 | Parliamentarian |
| David Mackey | Liberal | 26,142 | 40.6 | Board Member |
| Kevin Kruchkywich | NDP | 2,909 | 4.5 | Actor |
| Wayne Baker | PPC | 1,069 | 1.7 | Self-Employed |
| Other candidates | 334 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kitchener—Conestoga Liberal, safe seat
- Waterloo Liberal, safe seat
- Huron—Bruce Conservative, toss-up
- Kitchener Centre Green, competitive
- Kitchener South—Hespeler Liberal, competitive
- Wellington—Halton Hills North Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated