Riding profile

Perth--Wellington

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Perth--Wellington: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Perth--Wellington, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 47% vote share, against 37% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Nater

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
10.3
P(close race)
1%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 46.9%
  • Liberal 36.7%
  • NDP 4.3%
  • PPC 2.0%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HerePerth--Wellington 46.9%36.7%4.3%2.0%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +9.5 45.6% −9.0 6.4% −2.0 1.1% +1.0
National averageCanada 34.8% +12.1 41.9% −5.2 14.2% −9.9 1.0% +1.0

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.2 pts
Turnout
71.2%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.9 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Nater Elected Conservative 33,972 53.0 Parliamentarian
David Mackey Liberal 26,142 40.8 Board Member
Kevin Kruchkywich NDP 2,909 4.5 Actor
Wayne Baker PPC 1,069 1.7 Self-Employed

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 93.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 6.9%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46