Riding profile

Simcoe North

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Simcoe North: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Liberal

Toss-up

Probability
99%
Mean margin (pts)
4.5
P(close race)
58%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 44.3%
  • Conservative 39.8%
  • NDP 2.8%
  • Green 2.7%
  • PPC 1.3%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP Green
HereSimcoe North 44.3%39.8%2.8%2.7%
Provincial averageOntario 49.1% −4.8 35.3% +4.5 4.8% −2.0 2.0% +0.7
National averageCanada 48.0% −3.7 32.1% +7.7 10.6% −7.8 2.7%

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Simcoe North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 44% vote share, against 40% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Adam Chambers

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.7 pts
Turnout
68.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+0.8 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adam Chambers Elected Conservative 32,241 48.4 Parliamentarian
Ryan Rocca Liberal 29,767 44.7 Property Manager
Melissa Lloyd NDP 2,508 3.8 Office Manager
Ray Little Green 1,260 1.9 Manager, eMobility
Stephen Toivo Makk PPC 638 1.0 Engineer
Russ Emo Other 191 0.3 Commercial Insurance Broker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 97.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46