Riding profile

Simcoe North

Federal riding — ON · Rural · southwestern on

The question

Simcoe North: who wins this toss-up?

Editorial read

Simcoe North, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 4-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 42% vote share, against 40% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 97% anglophone.

Sitting member

Adam Chambers

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
81%
Mean margin (pts)
2.3
P(close race)
94%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 42.3%
  • Liberal 40.5%
  • NDP 4.1%
  • Green 2.4%
  • PPC 1.3%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereSimcoe North 42.3%40.5%4.1%2.4%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +4.8 45.6% −5.2 6.4% −2.2 1.6% +0.7
National averageCanada 34.8% +7.5 41.9% −1.4 14.2% −10.1 2.1% +0.3

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
3.7 pts
Turnout
68.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
-1.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Adam Chambers Elected Conservative 32,241 48.4 Parliamentarian
Ryan Rocca Liberal 29,767 44.7 Property Manager
Melissa Lloyd NDP 2,508 3.8 Office Manager
Ray Little Green 1,260 1.9 Manager, eMobility
Stephen Toivo Makk PPC 638 1.0 Engineer
Russ Emo Other 191 0.3 Commercial Insurance Broker

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.6%
  • Anglophone 97.4%
  • Non-francophone (other) 2.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46