Riding profile
Vaughan--Woodbridge
The question
Vaughan--Woodbridge: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?
Current forecast
Conservative
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 13.9
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereVaughan--Woodbridge | 51.8% | 37.9% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 35.3% +16.5 | 49.1% −11.2 | 4.8% −1.6 | 1.1% −0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 32.1% +19.7 | 48.0% −10.1 | 10.6% −7.4 | 1.0% |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Vaughan--Woodbridge, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 38% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Michael Guglielmin
Sits with Conservative
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Guglielmin Elected | Conservative | 40,422 | 60.0 | Business Executive |
| Francesco Sorbara | Liberal | 25,617 | 38.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Ali Bahman | NDP | 891 | 1.3 | Program Policy Analyst |
| Roman Yevseyev | PPC | 425 | 0.6 | Master Data Manager |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 74.5%
- Non-francophone (other) 25.5%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46