Riding profile

Vaughan--Woodbridge

Federal riding — ON · Suburban · toronto suburbs york durham

The question

Vaughan--Woodbridge: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

Vaughan--Woodbridge, a suburban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 22-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 54% vote share, against 34% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Michael Guglielmin

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
19.5
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 53.9%
  • Liberal 34.4%
  • NDP 5.0%
  • PPC 1.0%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP PPC
HereVaughan--Woodbridge 53.9%34.4%5.0%1.0%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +16.5 45.6% −11.2 6.4% −1.4 1.1% −0.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +19.1 41.9% −7.5 14.2% −9.2 1.0%

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
21.8 pts
Turnout
70.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
-2.3 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Michael Guglielmin Elected Conservative 40,422 60.0 Business Executive
Francesco Sorbara Liberal 25,617 38.0 Parliamentarian
Ali Bahman NDP 891 1.3 Program Policy Analyst
Roman Yevseyev PPC 425 0.6 Master Data Manager

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 74.5%
  • Non-francophone (other) 25.5%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46