Riding profile

York Centre

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

York Centre: who wins this toss-up?

Current forecast

Conservative

Toss-up

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
3.6
P(close race)
80%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 46.1%
  • Liberal 42.5%
  • NDP 3.9%
  • Green 0.8%
  • PPC 0.5%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. North Island--Powell RiverConservative45 %1.2 pt margin
  2. Central NewfoundlandConservative57 %1.4 pt margin
  3. Richmond Hill SouthLiberal55 %1.4 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereYork Centre 46.1%42.5%3.9%0.8%
Provincial averageOntario 35.3% +10.8 49.1% −6.6 4.8% −0.9 2.0% −1.1
National averageCanada 32.1% +14.0 48.0% −5.5 10.6% −6.7 2.7% −1.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

York Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 46% vote share, against 42% for the Liberal Party, and the race could swing.

Sitting member

Roman Baber

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Previous election · 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.0 pts
Turnout
63.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-8.4 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roman Baber Elected Conservative 26,110 54.8 Lawyer
Ya'ara Saks Liberal 20,318 42.7 Parliamentarian
Yusuf Ulukanligil NDP 1,191 2.5 Interpreter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 64.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 36.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46