Riding profile

York Centre

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

York Centre: a safe seat for the Conservative Party?

Editorial read

York Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Conservative Party in the previous cycle, with a 12-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservative Party ahead at 48% vote share, against 39% for the Liberal Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Roman Baber

Sits with Conservative

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Conservative

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
8.8
P(close race)
2%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Conservative 48.0%
  • Liberal 39.2%
  • NDP 5.9%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Conservative Liberal NDP Green
HereYork Centre 48.0%39.2%5.9%0.5%
Provincial averageOntario 37.5% +10.6 45.6% −6.5 6.4% −0.5 1.6% −1.1
National averageCanada 34.8% +13.2 41.9% −2.7 14.2% −8.3 2.1% −1.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Conservative
Margin
12.0 pts
Turnout
63.8%
Margin shift vs current projection
-3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Roman Baber Elected Conservative 26,110 54.8 Lawyer
Ya'ara Saks Liberal 20,318 42.7 Parliamentarian
Yusuf Ulukanligil NDP 1,191 2.5 Interpreter

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 64.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 36.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46