Riding profile

Humber River--Black Creek

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Humber River--Black Creek: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Humber River--Black Creek, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 52% vote share, against 29% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Judy A. Sgro

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 52.0%
  • Conservative 29.3%
  • NDP 6.9%
  • PPC 1.9%
  • Green 0.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal Conservative NDP PPC
HereHumber River--Black Creek 52.0%29.3%6.9%1.9%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +6.3 37.5% −8.2 6.4% +0.5 1.1% +0.9
National averageCanada 41.9% +10.1 34.8% −5.5 14.2% −7.3 1.0% +0.9

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
19.6 pts
Turnout
55.1%
Margin shift vs current projection
+3.2 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Judy Sgro Elected Liberal 21,357 55.6 Parliamentarian
Bijay Paudel Conservative 13,745 35.8 Business Development Manager
Matias de Dovitiis NDP 2,449 6.4 Civil Servant
Marek Jasinski PPC 621 1.6 Chief Technology Officer
Jeanne McGuire Other 226 0.6 Retired

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Anglophone 64.0%
  • Non-francophone (other) 36.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46