Riding profile
Eglinton--Lawrence
The question
Eglinton--Lawrence: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 9.7
- P(close race)
- 1%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEglinton--Lawrence | 48.9% | 39.3% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% −0.2 | 35.3% +4.0 | 4.8% −2.4 | 2.0% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +0.9 | 32.1% +7.1 | 10.6% −8.3 | 2.7% −1.2 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Eglinton--Lawrence, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 49% vote share, against 39% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible.
Sitting member
Vince Gasparro
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Gasparro Elected | Liberal | 29,949 | 49.3 | Banker |
| Karen Stintz | Conservative | 29,061 | 47.8 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Allison Tanzola | NDP | 996 | 1.6 | Student |
| Wayne Chechuevskiy | Green | 429 | 0.7 | Canadian Armed Forces Reservist |
| Timothy Gleeson | PPC | 326 | 0.5 | Retired Investor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 80.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46