Riding profile
Eglinton--Lawrence
The question
Eglinton--Lawrence: who wins this toss-up?
Editorial read
Eglinton--Lawrence, a rural riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 1-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 45% vote share, against 42% for the Conservative Party, and the race could swing.
Sitting member
Vince Gasparro
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Toss-up
- Probability
- 95%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 3.4
- P(close race)
- 79%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereEglinton--Lawrence | 45.0% | 41.7% | 3.7% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% −0.6 | 37.5% +4.2 | 6.4% −2.7 | 1.6% −0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +3.1 | 34.8% +6.9 | 14.2% −10.5 | 2.1% −0.9 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vince Gasparro Elected | Liberal | 29,949 | 49.3 | Banker |
| Karen Stintz | Conservative | 29,061 | 47.8 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Allison Tanzola | NDP | 996 | 1.6 | Student |
| Wayne Chechuevskiy | Green | 429 | 0.7 | Canadian Armed Forces Reservist |
| Timothy Gleeson | PPC | 326 | 0.5 | Retired Investor |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Anglophone 80.1%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.9%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46