Riding profile
University--Rosedale
The question
University--Rosedale: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 49.7
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereUniversity--Rosedale | 65.1% | 15.4% | 7.4% | 3.5% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +16.0 | 4.8% +10.7 | 35.3% −27.8 | 2.0% +1.5 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +17.1 | 10.6% +4.8 | 32.1% −24.7 | 2.7% +0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
University--Rosedale, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 65% vote share, against 15% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 80% anglophone.
Sitting member
Danielle Martin
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrystia Freeland Elected | Liberal | 39,847 | 64.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Liz Grade | Conservative | 14,624 | 23.5 | Real Estate Broker |
| Serena Purdy | NDP | 6,168 | 9.9 | PhD Student |
| Ignacio Mongrell | Green | 1,066 | 1.7 | Assistant Director, ICUBE - University of Toronto |
| Drew Garvie | Other | 304 | 0.5 | Office Administration |
| Barbara Biley | Other | 138 | 0.2 | Medical Stenographer |
| Adam Golding | Independent | 118 | 0.2 | Computer Science Teacher |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 0.9%
- Anglophone 79.7%
- Non-francophone (other) 19.4%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46