Riding profile

Toronto--Danforth

Federal riding — ON · Urban · toronto core

The question

Toronto--Danforth: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?

Editorial read

Toronto--Danforth, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 47-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 63% vote share, against 13% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 84% anglophone.

Sitting member

Julie Dabrusin

Sits with Liberal

Since
2025-04-28
Parliament
45th

Current forecast

Liberal

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
49.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Liberal 63.3%
  • NDP 12.9%
  • Conservative 12.8%
  • Green 1.5%

In context

How this riding stacks up

Liberal NDP Conservative Green
HereToronto--Danforth 63.3%12.9%12.8%1.5%
Provincial averageOntario 45.6% +17.6 6.4% +6.6 37.5% −24.6 1.6% −0.1
National averageCanada 41.9% +21.4 14.2% −1.3 34.8% −22.0 2.1% −0.6

Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Previous election · FED 2025

Won by
Liberal
Margin
47.3 pts
Turnout
71.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.6 pts

Detailed result · FED 2025

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Julie Dabrusin Elected Liberal 39,191 66.6 Parliamentarian
Ashik Hussain Conservative 11,187 19.0 Freelancer
Clare Hacksel NDP 7,626 13.0 Registered Midwife
Silvia Stardust Green 626 1.1 Entertainer
Liz White Other 251 0.4 Party Leader

Demographics

Who lives here

Linguistic profile

  • Francophone 0.9%
  • Anglophone 84.1%
  • Non-francophone (other) 15.0%

Data source : Statistics Canada — 2021 Census

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
fed_46