Riding profile
Spadina--Harbourfront
The question
Spadina--Harbourfront: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 37.5
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpadina--Harbourfront | 60.1% | 22.6% | 5.2% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +11.0 | 35.3% −12.7 | 4.8% +0.5 | 2.0% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +12.1 | 32.1% −9.5 | 10.6% −5.4 | 2.7% −1.0 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Spadina--Harbourfront, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 60% vote share, against 23% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 83% anglophone.
Sitting member
Chi Nguyen
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chi Nguyen Elected | Liberal | 31,832 | 60.1 | Executive Director |
| Diana Filipova | Conservative | 16,286 | 30.7 | Teacher |
| Norm Di Pasquale | NDP | 4,107 | 7.8 | Senior Consultant |
| Gordon Rand | Green | 448 | 0.8 | Actor |
| Gilbert Joseph Jubinville | PPC | 193 | 0.4 | Certified Engineering Technologist |
| Nick Lin | Other | 85 | 0.2 | Web Designer |
| Shrey Rao | Independent | 39 | 0.1 | Financial Analyst |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 83.3%
- Non-francophone (other) 15.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46