Riding profile
Spadina--Harbourfront
The question
Spadina--Harbourfront: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Spadina--Harbourfront, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 29-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 57% vote share, against 24% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 83% anglophone.
Sitting member
Chi Nguyen
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 32.3
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereSpadina--Harbourfront | 56.8% | 24.5% | 7.3% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +11.2 | 37.5% −13.0 | 6.4% +0.9 | 1.6% −0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +14.9 | 34.8% −10.3 | 14.2% −6.9 | 2.1% −0.8 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chi Nguyen Elected | Liberal | 31,832 | 60.1 | Executive Director |
| Diana Filipova | Conservative | 16,286 | 30.7 | Teacher |
| Norm Di Pasquale | NDP | 4,107 | 7.8 | Senior Consultant |
| Gordon Rand | Green | 448 | 0.8 | Actor |
| Gilbert Joseph Jubinville | PPC | 193 | 0.4 | Certified Engineering Technologist |
| Nick Lin | Other | 85 | 0.2 | Web Designer |
| Shrey Rao | Independent | 39 | 0.1 | Financial Analyst |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.1%
- Anglophone 83.3%
- Non-francophone (other) 15.6%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46