Riding profile
Toronto Centre
The question
Toronto Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 51.4
- P(close race)
- 0%
Watch list
The tightest races
Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto Centre | 64.2% | 12.8% | 10.4% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 49.1% +15.1 | 35.3% −22.5 | 4.8% +5.6 | 2.0% |
| National averageCanada | 48.0% +16.2 | 32.1% −19.3 | 10.6% −0.2 | 2.7% −0.7 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Editorial read
Toronto Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 64% vote share, against 13% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 78% anglophone.
Sitting member
Evan Solomon
Sits with Liberal
Previous election · 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Solomon Elected | Liberal | 37,907 | 64.3 | Journalist |
| Luis Ibarra | Conservative | 12,321 | 20.9 | Business Owner |
| Samantha Green | NDP | 7,358 | 12.5 | Family Physician |
| Olivia Iheme | Green | 664 | 1.1 | Unemployed |
| Nathen Mazri | PPC | 235 | 0.4 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Simon Luisi | Other | 177 | 0.3 | Courier |
| Philip Fernandez | Other | 170 | 0.3 | Teacher |
| Cleveland Marshall | Independent | 90 | 0.2 | Management Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.3%
- Anglophone 78.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 20.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46