Riding profile
Toronto Centre
The question
Toronto Centre: a safe seat for the Liberal Party?
Editorial read
Toronto Centre, an urban riding in Ontario, elected a member with the Liberal Party in the previous cycle, with a 43-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Liberal Party ahead at 61% vote share, against 15% for the Conservative Party, and the probability of a close race is negligible. Linguistic profile: 1% francophone, 78% anglophone.
Sitting member
Evan Solomon
Sits with Liberal
Current forecast
Liberal
Safe
- Probability
- 100%
- Mean margin (pts)
- 46.2
- P(close race)
- 0%
In context
How this riding stacks up
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HereToronto Centre | 60.9% | 14.7% | 12.4% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 45.6% +15.3 | 37.5% −22.8 | 6.4% +6.1 | 1.6% |
| National averageCanada | 41.9% +19.0 | 34.8% −20.1 | 14.2% −1.8 | 2.1% −0.5 |
Provincial averages computed across the 343 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election · FED 2025
Detailed result · FED 2025
Candidates and votes
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Evan Solomon Elected | Liberal | 37,907 | 64.3 | Journalist |
| Luis Ibarra | Conservative | 12,321 | 20.9 | Business Owner |
| Samantha Green | NDP | 7,358 | 12.5 | Family Physician |
| Olivia Iheme | Green | 664 | 1.1 | Unemployed |
| Nathen Mazri | PPC | 235 | 0.4 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Simon Luisi | Other | 177 | 0.3 | Courier |
| Philip Fernandez | Other | 170 | 0.3 | Teacher |
| Cleveland Marshall | Independent | 90 | 0.2 | Management Consultant |
Demographics
Who lives here
Linguistic profile
- Francophone 1.3%
- Anglophone 78.4%
- Non-francophone (other) 20.3%
Around the region
Nearby ridings
Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.
- Last model run
- Cycle
fed_46